Preview: UFC on Fox 25 ‘Weidman vs. Gastelum’

Light Heavyweights

Patrick Cummins (9-4) vs. Gian Villante (15-8)

THE MATCHUP: This looks like a glorious mess. Cummins and Villante are difficult men to evaluate. Both have obvious strengths. For Cummins, his powerful wrestling and steady conditioning stand out; for Villante, power and versatility are consistent advantages. Both have been knocked out a few times, but neither gives up easily. Where mid-division matchups at 205 pounds rarely provide examples of MMA’s best, this is a fight between two men who make mistakes and suffer the consequences in every fight. Nonetheless, these are fun characters and determined fighters. Expect their meeting to have lots of quirky, light heavyweight charm.

As noted, Cummins is a wrestler and a good one. In his college days, the 36 year-old was a two-time NCAA All-American, and while he has probably lost some of his youthful athleticism, he is still an aggressive and powerful takedown artist. He puts his takedowns together well and hits hard enough that he is occasionally able to set up a truly spectacular shot with his wooden striking. That striking, of course, is Cummins’ great weakness. He has a tendency to telegraph his strikes and expose himself to counters; and with a suspect chin hanging under that impressive mustache, Cummins rarely escapes a fight without being badly stunned at least once. All four of his losses have come via knockout.

Villante has his own problems with stiffness. He can be drawn into a brawl, at which point his punches become thoughtless and robotic, his chin an open target. Even when Villante is fighting smart, defense is a weak point. He evades only 56 percent of his opponents’ strikes and offers little in the way of resistance outside of an unreliable high guard. When he does connect, however, Villante delivers tremendous power. Ten of his 15 wins have been knockouts. A capable defender of takedowns, Villante is only vulnerable to grapplers when he is exhausted. Like Cummins, the former Ring of Combat champion has been knocked out four times; however, Cummins will be much keener to replicate one of Villante’s other losses in which he was ground to dust down the stretch.

Villante would be wise to approach this fight the way he approached his fight with Ilir Latifi. Though he lost that bout, he was able to stay competitive at a relatively slow pace, keeping his energy levels up for the later rounds. Cummins is nowhere near as dangerous as Latifi on the feet, and while he may be a more consistent takedown artist, he is not half as strong as the titanic Swede. Villante was not taken down at all in the first round of that bout, and he invested in his most effective strikes -- his powerful roundhouse kicks -- while targeting the legs and body to ensure that, if he was going to slow down, his opponent would slow down, too. The more Cummins can take down Villante and grind him against the fence, the better his chances. The longer Villante stays on his feet, the more perilous the position of Cummins’ consciousness becomes.

THE ODDS: Villante (-166), Cummins (+135)

THE PICK: If either of these men still has the ability to climb the light heavyweight ladder a bit, it is Villante. He is five years younger than Cummins, and while he has alternated wins and losses in his last six fights and lost all momentum as a result, there have nonetheless been glimmers of improvement from the Long Island slugger. He engaged the super powerful Latifi in a close fight, losing but surviving to the final bell and making his presence known in every round. Against Saparbek Safarov, Villante was once again stunned by an unpredictable punch, but technical combination punching and commitment to his trademark low kicks allowed him to weather the storm and come out on top. The results have not been pretty, but Villante has made some good decisions. Cummins fought through adversity against Jan Blachowicz, but consequences are more serious when Villante is the one hitting you. The pick is Villante by first-round knockout.

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