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Women’s Strawweights

Karolina Kowalkiewicz (12-3) vs. Michelle Waterson (16-6)

ODDS: Kowalkiewicz (-145), Waterson (+125)

It is a bit surprising that this fight is not the co-main event, as it is probably the second-most relevant fight on the card. Waterson typically gets the featured treatment, and she deserves it. Even though the “Karate Hottie” moniker has always felt like a marketing gimmick, an atomweight title run in Invicta Fighting Championships -- where Waterson also showed off some strong grappling skills -- proved that she is a fighter to take seriously inside the cage. It was a bit of a surprise when the UFC signed her, if only because she seemed too small to fight at strawweight, but her tenure at 115 pounds has gone surprisingly well, as Waterson has proven to be quite strong against opponents who try to clinch with her. Her physical limitations still give her a clear ceiling against the divisional elite -- Rose Namajunas’ reach and Tecia Torres’ physical strength were too much for her to overcome -- but wins over Cortney Casey and Felice Herrig have Waterson back in the picture as a potential contender.

Kowalkiewicz should provide an interesting test for Waterson, since she is another fighter who looks unassuming but has proven to be deceptively strong and deceptively tough. Kowalkiewicz can safely be called a non-athlete -- despite some muay Thai success, her MMA striking has proven to be quite awkward -- but she has found success through sheer persistence. Kowalkiewicz tends to plod forward throwing herky-jerky combinations, often winding up in the clinch either via her own pressure or via her opponent eventually looking for a safe space. That is when Kowalkiewicz is at her best, as she is capable of throwing a ton of hard offense from the clinch and has been shockingly immovable for a lot of her opponents. Namajunas in particular basically gave away her fight against Kowalkiewicz by trying to fight at close range. Kowalkiewicz already found her way to a title fight in 2016, but during this second run up the ladder, she has had her own difficulties against the stronger athletes of the division: Claudia Gadelha took her down and tapped her without much trouble, and a bout against Jessica Andrade turned into a one-sided beating. While a return to contender status may not be in the cards, Kowalkiewicz can still serve as a tough test in fights like this one.

Even though both women are known quantities, this is a surprisingly difficult fight to call. Waterson is not typically the type of fighter who beats Kowalkiewicz -- again, Gadelha and Andrade got past her by physically overwhelming Kowalkiewicz in close quarters -- but her speedy range striking may be too quick for Kowalkiewicz to track down. If Kowalkiewicz gets this into the clinch, this fight could be ugly, but if Waterson stays on her bike and picks apart Kowalkiewicz, the Pole looks to be too plodding to get much of anything done. Depending on Waterson to fight the smartest fight possible is a big risk, but the path to victory is there. The pick is Waterson via decision.

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