Preview: UFC Fight Night 121 ‘Werdum vs. Tybura’

Middleweight

Daniel Kelly (13-2) vs. Elias Theodorou (13-2)

ODDS: Theodorou (-270), Kelly (+230)

ANALYSIS: Though this represents more smart and necessary middleweight matchmaking, this should be awkward and unnerving to watch. The 40-year-old Kelly, a four-time judo Olympian for Australia, has improbably put together a 6-2 mark in the UFC despite his advanced age and looking like every single physical motion he makes inside the cage is labor-intensive. While he was trashed in his last outing in June, succumbing to Derek Brunson’s powerful punches in just 76 seconds, Kelly has managed to create a steady-if-awkward distance striking game from the southpaw stance and naturally excels when he can control clinch battles and use his judo and dirty boxing skills.

Olympic credentials and age aside, Theodorou, 11 years his junior, is a better MMA-style athlete than Kelly. He has five inches of reach on the Australian, can seamlessly switch stances and can break opponents’ rhythm, throwing bushels of kicks in odd bursts and launching standing karate chops and backhand attacks. While Kelly lands 3.87 significant strikes per minute to Theodorou’s 3.11, the Canadian only eats 1.74 in return to Kelly’s 3.94. The numbers speak to the disruptive power of Theodorou’s unorthodox, swarming striking, at least when it works.

Will it work this time? Theodorou is not a home run hitter on the feet and has nowhere near the power of Brunson or Sam Alvey, who clobbered the plodding Kelly. In fact, Theodorou is at his best when he can use his wild standup to grab the clinch and continue keeping his opponent off-balance while threatening takedowns, dirty boxing and the like. Kelly has been surprisingly effective there throughout his UFC run, so why risk it? Theodorou’s two losses to Thiago Santos and Brad Tavares were both fights in which he could not dictate the terms in the phone booth and suffered as a result.

A few clinches here are inevitable, yet it seems most likely that Theodorou will spend most of his time crouching, feinting, changing stances and occasionally coming alive with wild strings of strikes on the slower Kelly. The Aussie may try to chug along with his usual striking output, but Theodorou spends tons of time backing up, circling and, in general, finding ways to preempt his foe’s output. Kelly may have some flashes, but Theodorou will just do a little bit more in at least two rounds, albeit in awkward fashion, to win a potentially ugly decision.

Next Fight » Volkanovski vs. Young