Preview: UFC Fight Night ‘Dillashaw vs. Cruz’

Welterweights

Patrick Cote (22-9) vs Ben Saunders (19-6-2): When it comes to striking, there are few things that Saunders does not do well, but his methodology is not always sound. Despite a massive reach and height advantage over most opponents, Saunders is apt to stand his ground and counter in mid-range rather than maintaining the distance or taking it away. Being the only fighter in UFC history to win a fight by omoplata, Saunders is more than dangerous enough to win a fight from his back, but his nonexistent takedown defense means that he does not often get to choose when and how he ends up there. Cote, meanwhile, seems to be finding a new speed just when it seemed sure that he had nowhere left to go as a fighter. Against Josh Burkman, Cote showed newfound patience and craft, setting up his right hand with a clever pawing jab and by wrestling against the cage and moving well from side to side in the moments between exchanges. Those skills will make him a threat to Saunders, who has never been as durable as Cote. However, the Canadian still lacks volume and that gives the edge to Saunders, who regularly throws dozens of strikes per minute. Saunders wins by unanimous decision.

Lightweights

Chris Wade (10-1) vs Mehdi Baghdad (11-3): Wade is that rare and dangerous breed of fighter, a submission wrestler with a kick-heavy striking game. Wade uses these kicks to rack up points and maintain the distance while he looks for an opening to hit a well-timed reactive takedown. Wade is particularly skilled at finishing takedowns, often with head pressure and a sneaky knee tap. On the ground, he swarms rather than smothers, always looking for a choke in transition. Baghdad does not stand much of a chance against a fighter as dynamic as Wade, especially on short notice. A Team Quest rep, he fights in a fashion reminiscent of a modern-day Dan Henderson, only without the old age to excuse his inactivity. Fortunately, he has the chin that once made “Hendo” so effective, so he is an entertaining slugger for the time being. Even so, Wade is justifiably favored and probably thanking his lucky stars that Mairbek Taisumov could not make it to Boston. The pick is Wade by second-round submission.

Featherweights

Maximo Blanco (12-6-1) vs Luke Sanders (10-0): Thanks to his athleticism, Blanco has a phenomenal sense for transitions; he seems to feel changes in position or range a half second before most fighters, and that allows him to control distance and find openings in seemingly wild scrambles. He is powerful, fast and possesses a keen sense of rhythm that confounds veteran opponents. His problem, of course, is that he is a bit of a head case. Not only does Blanco struggle to control his killer instincts at times, making him prone to fouling in the heat of the moment, but he also takes long portions of fights off, cruising through rounds with no sense of urgency. That leaves a valid opening for the style of short-notice replacement Sanders, a pressure fighter with considerable power and a keen sense of the cage. Normally a bantamweight, Sanders will likely be too small and not as damaging as usual against Blanco. What’s more, the short notice may affect the stamina necessary for his relentless style to work. He remains a threat, but Blanco is the safe pick. Blanco wins by unanimous decision.

Lightweights

Paul Felder (10-2) vs Daron Cruickshank (16-7): Felder entered the UFC as a dangerous counter wrestler, a forward-moving counterstriker with a fondness for devastating spinning strikes and crushing knees. When faced with other striking specialists, however, Felder’s inexperience proved to be a serious flaw. Enter Cruickshank, a flashy striker whose repertoire lacks much of the subtlety of Ross Pearson and Edson Barboza, the two men who bested Felder. Cruickshank has a varied striking arsenal of his own, but he has always lacked nuance. Cruickshank is all big movements -- big steps, big strikes and big takedowns. That obviousness should allow Felder to time his counters and cinch the win. Felder takes it by unanimous decision.

Middleweights

Tim Boetsch (18-9) vs Ed Herman (22-11): In a matchup that can only be described as “extremely middleweight,” gatekeepers Boetsch and Herman will be fighting to maintain that perilous position. Herman is in many ways the more reliable striker. He punches with both hands, uses a jab and finishes combinations with a very respectable left hook. A lack of speed has always been his problem. Herman is slow of both hand and foot, and while Boetsch is not the fastest fighter in the world, he can cover distances with relative speed and grace. Both fighters should be able to neutralize one another in the wrestling department. Herman is difficult to take down but willing to fight it out in the clinch, which could give Boetsch an advantage. Herman does throw nicely on breaks, but in the end, Boetsch is at least as durable as “The Ultimate Fighter 3” finalist and far more powerful, both in terms of punching ability and physical strength. That should give him the edge. The pick is Boetsch by second-round TKO.

Featherweights

Charles Rosa (10-2) vs Augusto Mendes (5-0): Rosa is capable of some particularly uncanny submission attempts on the ground, such as a transition from back control to an arm-in guillotine: Peep the third round of his fight with Sean Soriano to witness that beauty. He is an archetypal high-risk/big-reward grappler, quintessentially entertaining and yet entirely unreliable. Rosa could very easily be 0-3 in the UFC, despite being competitive in each and every fight. That usually makes picking against him relatively easy, except that Augusto Mendes, stepping in on short notice for an injured Jim Hettes, is extremely inexperienced in the world of professional MMA. If Rosa consents to a grappling match with Mendes, he could find himself in trouble: Mendes has been a black belt in Brazilian jiu-jitsu for over 10 years now, and the number of world titles adorning his mantle speaks to his incredible skill in that realm. Rosa should be able to take advantage of his rough-and-tumble striking style, however, and put his own experience to use. The pick is Rosa by unanimous decision.

Light Heavyweights

Ilir Latifi (10-2) vs Sean O'Connell (11-3): O’Connell only really fights one way. He pressures, charging forward behind looping combinations and soaking up impressive amounts of damage along the way. If he can, he grabs an underhook and uses head pressure to smash his opponent into the cage, where he chips away with the free hand. If O’Connell is always inside and always moving forward, then Latifi is a little more adaptable. “All the way in or all the way out” seems to be his motto. At range, he puts together solid, brief combinations with considerable power. Latifi’s real strength, however, is his, well, strength. The Swedish wrestler is an athletic powerhouse in the clinch. O’Connell is perhaps the better three-round fighter, but that is his only real edge here. Latifi should be able to outwork O’Connell in his chosen range and perhaps even pick him apart on his way there. The pick is Latifi by unanimous decision.

Bantamweights

Rob Font (11-1) vs Joey Gomez (6-0): This is a fascinating contest between bantamweight prospects. Font already put himself on the UFC map by knocking out veteran George Roop in his UFC debut, but Gomez is likely the bigger puncher, with all six of his professional wins coming via first-round knockout. Gomez is a smooth boxer by MMA standards, with a stiff and unpredictable jab. Preferring to keep the distance with this weapon, Gomez rarely stays around long enough to throw more than two shots in a row, but his 1-2 demands respect. Font is a bit wilder as a striker, but he is more well-rounded, too. Font is a capable grappler who can strike as well as wrestle in the clinch. Though somewhat reckless with his footwork, Font can close the distance very quickly on the feet, and he is used to facing longer, taller men. He is also accustomed to going the distance -- something Gomez has never done. Gomez has a lot of potential, but Font’s experience is a great advantage. Font wins by second-round submission.

Light Heavyweights

Francimar Barroso (17-4) vs Elvis Mutapcic (15-3): Barroso’s style is rarely pretty, but he should be a stiff test for the debuting Mutapcic. Barroso is more of a grinder than a spectacular takedown artist, but his wrestling allows him to control the pace when he backs his foe into the fence. At range, he is hittable but game, and he makes up for in aggression what he lacks in technical prowess. Mutapcic should have no shortage of openings, however, for his entertaining brand of counterstriking. He throws tight combinations off of efficient upper-body movement. Though he prefers to strike, Mutapcic will grind away in the clinch or smother from top position if given the chance, particularly if he feels the need to recover. He is also very capable off of his back, though his aim is usually to trap and escape, not submit. The short notice will hurt Mutapcic, but Barroso’s style is tailor-made for an accurate, powerful counterpuncher with good grappling defense. Mutapcic wins by second-round KO.

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