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Lightweights

#14 LW | Gregor Gillespie (13-1, 6-1 UFC) vs. #12 LW | Diego Ferreira (17-3, 8-3 UFC)

ODDS: Gillespie (-175), Ferreira (+155)

Gillespie figured to hit a wall at some point, but his first loss was still surprisingly brutal. A collegiate national champion as a wrestler, “The Gift” leaned on that background with an entertaining but reckless approach. Gillespie consistently pressured his opponents in pursuit of his wrestling and was more than willing to rely on his chin to hold up to whatever offense came back his way. Gillespie got the first big test of his UFC career in late 2019 against Kevin Lee, and it went about as poorly as possible. For one, Gillespie took a surprisingly cautious approach. Instead of his typical immediate hunt for takedowns, he chose to feel out the action on the feet, and for that choice, he paid dearly. After a relatively even few minutes, Lee blasted Gillespie with a frighteningly accurate head kick that left him slumped against the side of the cage. It has been radio silence ever since for Gillespie, who was not even scheduled for a fight in 2020. The UFC is not doing him any favors in his comeback fight, as he gets another tough draw in Ferreira.

Ferreira enjoyed a solid enough start to his UFC career prior to a two-year USADA suspension. He scored an upset over hyped prospect Olivier Aubin-Mercier, and losses to Beneil Dariush and Dustin Poirier only aged better over time. However, the run he had up the ladder upon his return from suspension was a bit of a shock. Ferreira’s 2019 campaign saw him outclass Rustam Khabilov and Mairbek Taisumov, which led to a thrashing of Anthony Pettis that got the Brazilian over the top as a potential contender. However, with the top of the UFC’s lightweight division being a bit of a mess, Ferreira was locked out of true contention and instead placed in a rematch against Dariush in February. While Ferreira fared better the second time around, there were still some of the same issues, as Dariush forced him to cede pressure and had the stronger wrestling game for most of the way. At 36 years of age, Ferreira’s window could close at any moment, so a win against Gillespie feels particularly crucial.

If Gillespie goes back to his typical approach, he certainly has a chance. Dariush showed that Ferreira can back off from his aggression when forced to face pressure himself, and Gillespie should be able to turn that into takedowns. Still, there are the concerns about exactly what happened to Gillespie’s aggression in the fight against Lee; and even if he finds some wrestling success, it remains unclear what exactly he can do with it. Ferreira is a talented grappler in his own right, enough so that he should be able to survive and force Gillespie to keep re-instituting control. Add in that Ferreira has shown a strong ability to counter overaggressive opponents on the feet, and Gillespie is going to have to walk through fire for 15 minutes if he wants to come away with the win. Ferreira looks to have the grappling skill to keep Gillespie from implementing his will, as well as the punching power to make the American pay. The pick is Ferreira via second-round knockout.

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