Bettor’s Paradise

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Just about everything that can be written regarding the mega fight between Floyd Mayweather Jr. and Manny Pacquiao on Saturday at the MGM Grand Garden Arena in Las Vegas has been written.

The promoters behind this “Fight of the Century” have grown fond of throwing the media various monetary bones. One stat that has emerged in recent days: Mayweather-Pacquiao might approach the Super Bowl -- Super Bowl XLIX brought in $119 million in bets -- in terms of the amount of money wagered throughout Nevada sportsbooks.

Jay Kornegay, director of the Westgate Las Vegas Super Book, admits he has been blown away by the amount of money pouring in on the fight.

“It’s been a constant flow of wagers that we’ve never seen before for a fight,” he told Sherdog.com. “The amount coming in is unprecedented.”

Is it realistic to believe Mayweather-Pacquiao could rival what is annually the most-watched event in professional sports?

“Yeah, it’s going to,” said longtime sports analyst Dave Cokin. “At least [at] the MGM properties it will.”

Cokin, who has been wagering on sports professionally for 34 years and co-hosts the Las Vegas Sports Line show on ESPN Radio 1100, is convinced Mayweather-Pacquiao will not only set records for boxing wagers but that nothing will even approach it.

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“I thinking it could [reach upwards of $100 million],” Cokin said. “It’s just unbelievable how much wagering has been [taking place] on this fight.”

While Mayweather-Pacquiao will go down as the most significant fight in boxing history in terms of the amount of money it generates, Cokin does not believe the bout itself is the driving force behind the record-setting bets being dropped at various sportsbooks.

“I don’t think it would have generated this kind of betting five years ago,” he said. “It’s more of sports gambling’s acceptance level today compared to three or four years ago. I think with [NBA Commissioner] Adam Silver coming out and saying that it should be legalized [nationally], the whole landscape has changed. There’s more money being bet than there ever was before.”

Todd Fuhrman, the Vegas Insider for Fox Sports, agrees with Cokin’s assessment but believes other factors are in play.

“I think if we would have had this fight in 2009 or whenever, I don’t think we would have had the same buildup that we have right now,” Fuhrman said. “It’s been five years of PR that has created this huge buzz. Now, everybody from the $5 bettor to someone who is going to bet half a million dollars on the fight wants to be a part of it.”

Fuhrman believes Mayweather-Pacquiao will exceed all other mega fights that have come before it in terms of sheer betting, but he does not think it will approach the numbers the Super Bowl generated.

“I think that’s a little aggressive,” Fuhrman said with a chuckle. “From a realistic target, we will probably see somewhere in the ballpark of $50 to $80 million wagered on this fight, which is still huge. You really only have the five potential outcomes: the straight-up wagering, the over/under of rounds, what round the fight will end in, a draw … You don’t have that myriad of 700 to a thousand prop bets that the Super Bowl brings in.

“Still, it’ll be the most heavily-bet boxing match that this city will have seen in quite some time,” he added. “The only fight that came close to this amount of action was the Mike Tyson-Evander Holyfield ‘Ear Bite’ fight, but everything really hinges on how many [six-] and seven-figure wagers come in.”

Kornegay sees both sides of the argument.

“I have heard estimations from my colleagues that anywhere from $50 to $120 million could be wagered for this one event,” he said. “My estimations have always been somewhere in the middle of that. I don’t think it’ll approach record Super Bowl numbers, but if you look at the biggest wagering events of all-time, every one of them is a Super Bowl. In terms of single-event wagering records, all of them are Super Bowls, and this fight has a chance to break into the top 10. While the Super Bowl will always have many more tickets written, this fight will bring in more large-amount wagers, much more than the Super Bowl would, and that’s what would give this fight a chance to reach those numbers.”

Cokin and Fuhrman both believe Mayweather will be victorious, which falls in line with how the sharps are primarily betting.

“It’s as sharp-square as it gets, as far as the split goes,” Cokin said. “The squares are just in love with Manny and people just can’t stand Floyd, so they’re all betting on Manny. You’ve probably got a 70-30 ticket count in favor of Manny, but the pros are all bombing Floyd.”

“These types of fights seem to always follow a trend,” Fuhrman added. “The casual bettor almost always bets on the underdog, and then, of course, Pacquiao has so many fans. He’ll get a laundry list of bettors who will drop ten, twenty thousand on him, but the real heavy hitters will likely all back Floyd.”

A Mayweather victory would prove favorable for the books.

“The books are going to need Floyd Mayweather to win, just like they do every time,” Fuhrman said. “There are too many people who have bet on Manny, so they need Floyd to win.”

Kornegay claims that might not be the case with every book in town.

“If you are at a bigger house and you take in very large wagers -- six- or seven-figure wagers -- those are most likely all going to be on Mayweather,” Kornegay said. “With that said, some of those books might actually need Pacquiao to win because they would have taken in so many large Mayweather wagers.”

What the books cannot afford, though, is a draw, which is not outside the realm of possibility when considering the judging history in Las Vegas.

“That would be a calamitous outcome for the books,” Fuhrman said. “The number for that started around 18-to-1 around town and it came crashing down to where some books have it down to six-to-one. Most of the folks I’ve spoken to will have seven-figure liabilities if this thing ends in a draw. Any outcome would be better for the books than a draw, but Floyd by decision would be the best-case scenario for the books.”