Prime Picks: UFC 273 ‘Volkanovski vs. Korean Zombie’

A plentiful plus-money party on Saturday will parade into Jacksonville, Florida, when the Ultimate Fighting Championship returns to the VyStar Veterans Memorial Arena. Many key BetUS lines appear surprisingly lopsided based on those competing, with extremely live underdogs in all three of the final fights of the pay-per-view. It’s a dog day afternoon on this UFC 273 edition of Prime Picks.

Where would a parlay of the final three underdogs clock in for this fight card? For those wondering, it sits at +11656, meaning throwing down $10 on that accumulator would net you about $1,166. It may be an unlikely trio of outcomes to some, but look no further than UFC 217 for precedent of big upsets concluding a show. On the other hand, the parlay celebrated by some for UFC 273, where the final three heavy favorites all prevail, currently resides at -157. A moneyline bet on any of those three is not nearly juicy enough, and this three-leg play could be an important alternative if one disagrees with the trio of options provided below.

Chan Sung Jung (+450)

The only fighter to ever oppose Jung as this big of a favorite—currently -700—is all-time great featherweight Jose Aldo, who ran roughshod over “The Korean Zombie” back in 2013. Unbeaten in his last 20, incumbent champion Alexander Volkanovski will bring with him an even longer winning streak than Aldo’s 15 before meeting Jung. It is for good reason that Volkanovski is heavily favored, as he has displayed not only an extremely adaptable game but the ability to learn and evolve after each fight. New skills were on display from the Aussie from one Max Holloway fight to the next—regardless of how the bouts were scored—and few can match his remarkable pace. On the other hand, few possess the offense that the South Korean brings to the table, with powerful strikes or dangerous submission skills that can threaten at any time of the fight. Based on what Jung can offer back and how hard he can hit in his weight class, a flier at +500 should not be overlooked.

Few men can outwork Holloway inside the cage, and based on his striking totals and effective offense, Volkanovski is such a man. A rare breed, Volkanovski can beat someone at their own game or even show that he can take everything they dish out and give it right back to them. Brian Ortega had him dead to rights with a guillotine choke in Round 3, with “T-City” famous for snatching victory from the jaws of defeat, and Volkanovski not only fought out of it but ended up winning that round. Be it walking down Aldo, chopping Holloway’s legs out or smashing his fists into Chad Mendes’ face, “Alexander The Great” has always risen to the occasion inside the Octagon.

“The Korean Zombie” can be outworked, and his chin is not impenetrable. A shade fewer than 50% of Volkanovski’s victories have come by knockout, and all three in the UFC took place in the second frame. While Volkanovski can serve as more of a computer as he collects data and sets traps that opponents will fall for in the later rounds, Jung is a remarkably fast starter. Gaining the Aussie’s respect early will be key, whether landing against him on the feet or tripping him up to make Volkanovski have to consider takedowns. While some of Volkanovski’s past opponents have faded in later rounds, Jung is not the type that will tire unless “Alexander The Great” forces him to fight off his back foot for the duration of their battle. A prop of this bout going the distance at -150 is a suitable play, if one does not wish to spring for the upset or navigate through the overwhelming favored status of the champion. The safest options are likely either Volkanovski wins by decision at -150 or the fight going over of 4.5 rounds at -145, but Prime Picks lives on the edge.

Aljamain Sterling (+350)

The narrative of the first meeting between Sterling and Petr Yan has shifted greatly, with a large swath of fans and media alike dismissing the former’s early successes. Judge Ron McCarthy had Sterling up the first two rounds, and all three gave “Aljo” the second frame at minimum. It is unquestionable that Yan was picking up steam while Sterling appeared to be fading fast, but it was hardly a foregone conclusion that Yan would have won were it not for the illegal knee. The Russian has shown himself to be a machine since joining the promotion in 2018, with few flaws offensively or defensively to exploit. The power he possesses—and the wherewithal to not surrender any position for any longer than he has to—makes him a destructive threat in his weight class. His takedown defense proved nearly impregnable against the funk-style wrestler in their first meeting, and he will have to put that on full display if he hopes to prevail in the rematch.

Sterling’s pace and activity, where he came out of his corner each round as if Jason Guida had given him a series of slaps, showed to be frenetic and unrelenting for the first 10 minutes of action. His almost frantic pace, mixed with his inability to stop Yan’s takedowns, likely played a factor in the bantamweight’s gas tank depleting as the bout crept towards the 15-minute mark. Considering Yan’s astounding accuracy—he landed 62% of his significant strikes—Sterling had some answers but not enough of them, as he practically could not buy a takedown of his own. Many believe Yan is the heir apparent to the unified bantamweight throne, while Sterling may be rusty or have lost a step after a year away to recover from injury and surgery. Grounding Yan will be imperative in order for Sterling to win this one, and with a slightly modified game plan and some creative forced grappling exchanges, he has every chance of pulling it off, making his line at +350 quite tantalizing.

Gilbert Burns (+375)

No betting odds for this card jumped off the page more than five-time welterweight and four-time UFC vet Khamzat Chimaev as an overwhelming favorite against former title challenger Burns. Chimaev has decimated every test put in front of him, including his two trips to the Octagon at 170 pounds against Rhys McKee and Jingliang Li, barely getting a scratch. This step up in competition is gigantic and perhaps unwarranted given how difficult it is for welterweight contenders to burst onto the scene. Some have already forgotten that Burns’ only defeat in his current division is to current champion Kamaru Usman, a man he hurt worse than anyone ever had. Were it not for Usman reasserting control of the match thanks to a piston-like jab, “Durinho” might have been king. With stunningly heavy hands and a penchant for the ground game as a Mundials champion, there is no reason Burns should be this massive of an underdog against anyone in his weight class, “Borz” included.

When Burns faced Usman—the champion was on a 12-fight winning streak in the UFC alone—he checked in at +225. Fan and bettor perception is so high on the Sweden-based Chechen that he is expected to run through this Top 3 test. Meanwhile, so many questions loom for the meteorically rising Chimaev. How does he react when taking a punch flush on the chin? What does he do when the fight hits the mat and the other person immediately attacks for a submission? How will he fare once the bout reaches the seventh minute? All of these and more make it shocking to see “Durinho” with this line, as can threaten anywhere the bout goes until his consciousness has been stripped away.

Alexey Oleynik Wins Inside Distance (+140)

The mildest of the four presented plus-picks comes with a fighter who is currently sitting as a pick-’em against late replacement Jared Vanderaa. Instead of facing Ilir Latifi, a thick, wrestle-hungry Swede, he will be meeting a man with the proper nomenclature of “The Mountain.” While a bit smaller than his new opponent, Oleynik has never appeared concerned taking on someone larger. On the wrong end of 44, there is no question that Oleynik has lost several steps, and his tolerance for damage has diminished nearly as much as his cardio. However, look back at those recent knockout losses. If they are not forgivable—Alistair Overeem is “The Demolition Man,” Walt Harris only wins by knockout, Derrick Lewis is the promotion’s all-time knockout leader and Chris Daukaus punched his way up the division with his remarkably fast hands—they are at least understandable. Unless he gets caught early by one of Vanderaa’s wind-up punches, he can drag the fight to the ground and do what he does best.

A California native out of Team Quest, Vanderaa does not possess one-punch knockout power in his division, despite his size, instead relying on attrition and deceptively high volume to pound others out. His Achilles heel, as far as his UFC run goes, has been his practically nonexistent takedown defense. Both Sergey Spivak and Alexander Romanov tossed him around at will before getting the job done late in the second frame, and Oleynik possesses the same kind of in-your-face, grappling-heavy skill set to make Vanderaa’s life miserable. The onus will be on Vanderaa to intercept an advancing Oleynik or, better yet, press the Russian submission magician while staying out of clinch range. “The Boa Constrictor” has shown a remarkable ability to close the distance with power punches, even landing them effectively before tying adversaries up and having his way with them. Unless Vanderaa can blast Oleynik coming in, the opportunity is too great for Oleynik to wrench his man to the canvas, where he can pound on him, snag hold of an exposed limb or neck or even set up his patented Ezekiel choke while pulling guard.

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