Prime Picks: UFC 289 ‘Nunes vs. Aldana’

The Ultimate Fighting Championship on Saturday heads to the Great White North at the worst possible time, although its placement in the southwestern city of Vancouver, British Columbia, means fighters should not have concerns about air quality. Eleven fights, including a single championship matchup, will treat fans in Rogers Arena with a fairly well-matched card that sees about half of the bouts with odds of -150 or closer. Join the UFC 289 edition of Prime Picks as we cast a line on the main event, dodge a matchup that may be closer than lines indicate and push chips on a pile supporting a finish-friendly former titleholder.

STRAIGHT-UP CASH

Amanda Nunes-Irene Aldana Lasts Under 3.5 Rounds (-155)

There is no denying that two-division champion Nunes has become more conservative competitively since she clocked Holly Holm with the Holly Holm special. A seemingly unmotivated Nunes got shellacked and tapped by Julianna Pena, and although she destroyed Pena in the rematch months later, the finish could have come several times had Nunes stepped on the accelerator. At 35, Nunes is openly discussing her endgame, and that could result in some scary moments or a more “win at all costs” approach so that her legacy remains intact from start to finish. Even as she has slowed down to a degree, this is still one of the more dangerous women—if not the most dangerous—to ever grace a cage. Enter Aldana, a Mexican challenger who has recorded four of her last five victories inside the distance.

Aldana was not the first choice for the UFC 289 marquee, as the promotion wanted to force an immediate and quite unnecessary rubber match between Nunes and Pena. It is not difficult to argue that Aldana is the fresh matchup and one fans might prefer seeing, but it is tough to claim she earned her title shot. Less than three years ago, Holm clearly handled her across five rounds, and her only two appearances since then came at 139.5 pounds because she missed weight badly and due to a pre-planned 140-pound catchweight with Macy Chiasson. Although she won both by knockout over ranked women at 135 pounds, fighters generally should earn some victories in their actual weight category before earning a shot at the belt; and a blistering knockout of Ketlen Vieira back in 2019 should hardly factor in to current matchmaking. None of that takes away from her developing skills, as she presents danger on the feet with blazing fast hands and the movement and footwork to back them. For as long as she is upright, Aldana has a chance to not just win but to do so dramatically.

The best course of action for Nunes, as she found against Germaine de Randamie, is to exploit her foe’s strong but not impregnable takedown defense. If Holm could ground Aldana four or five times during the course of their match, Nunes should be able to do the same. Additionally, the mere concern of Nunes hitting a takedown in later rounds can quell some of the offense coming back her way, which will in turn open up avenues for the Brazilian bomber to swing for the fences. In the case of this headlining affair, if Nunes can move things horizontally, she can get work done with her active ground-and-pound. The comparison is a bit dated given how much the challenger has grown since then, but Tonya Evinger overwhelmed Aldana with grappling and eventually pounded her out back in 2015. Nunes could do the same, and as long as she does this by 2:30 of Round 4, this play hits. On the other hand, Aldana could clip Nunes swinging wildly, as she is a far sharper striker than Pena. No matter the victor—depending on the strategy Nunes employs, this could be far closer than the -325 vs. +255 line that displays now—this main attraction should end by stoppage by the midpoint of the first championship round.

STRAIGHT UP PASS

Dan Ige (-260)

Hawaii’s Ige is the rightful favorite against Nate Landwehr. That much is certain. However, there are better options than throwing down for a small return on “50K,” given what his opponent brings to the table. Landwehr may become the type of roster staple that will pick up “Performance of the Night” checks just a little more frequently than his adversary earns them from dispatching him in a dramatic fashion. A pair of brutal knees have flattened Landwehr in the not-so-distant past, and Ige could author a similar such knockout if he figures out the timing of “Nate the Train.” The whirlwind of offense that Landwehr will provide, whether from swinging strikes or forcing reckless scrambles, makes him a dangerous test for as long as he is conscious.

Ige can at times find himself fighting to his level of opposition, doing just enough to get his hand raised. While capable of putting up high-volume performances, the Xtreme Couture fighter can occasionally overrely on his power, as he can lash out like a bolt of lightning and send someone careening to the canvas. Ige will need to keep the fight on the feet or dictate the terms of the ground engagement, as Landwehr can crash forward and decide on a whim to try to take things to the mat. The former M-1 Global champion is not singularly focused on one aspect of the fight, and he can suffer defensive lapses that result in his getting chinned. Ige could take advantage of that, and he could undoubtedly record a highlight-reel knockout. However, with him being such a high favorite, it is not the best angle of approach. If one is supremely confident that he will in fact catch Landwehr with something and put him away, Ige wins by stoppage at +120 is much more reasonable.

DOG WILL HUNT

Charles Oliveira (+130)

There exist few combatants in this sport who represent proverbial danger more than Oliveira, who threatens at any stage of the match no matter where it plays out. Whether on the feet, on his back, on top or even with his back to the cage wall, “Do Bronx” is constantly looking for a way to finish the fight. This has resulted in many spectacular performances, thrilling slugfests, startling submissions and, most importantly, the promotion’s record for the most finishes (19). It is not just that he also maintains the top position for submissions by a wide margin, 16 compared to the next closest fighters with 11, but that his striking has vastly improved since the days when it was a liability. No better illustration of that can be found than when he dropped Michael Chandler, hurt Dustin Poirier and decked Justin Gaethje in back-to-back-to-back thrillers. The favored Beneil Dariush will be in the danger zone for the duration of their fight.

A winner of eight straight, Dariush’s resume has gone underappreciated by many, including the organization, as he has thus far failed to earn a crack at lightweight gold. Instead, he gets what could be a one-sided no. 1 contender fight against arguably his worst matchup this side of Islam Makhachev. While the Iranian-born fighter can decide to take things to the mat or opt to let his hands fly, either option presents a fair amount of risk. It may be over three years ago, but if Dariush and Oliveira had been engaging in the similar fashion as Dariush did against Drakkar Klose, it is likely that the Brazilian would have achieved what Klose could not. Dariush is a composed fighter and fairly cerebral in his approach, but he is not unflappable. Oliveira could walk him down and bust him in the chops just the same as he could throw up a triangle choke off his back when Dariush gets on top and loses focus for a split second. The submission chops of the Kings MMA fighter should be enough to fight off the worst of what Oliveira has to offer, but to quote the great Carlson Gracie, “Punch a black belt in the face, [and] he becomes a brown belt.”

AN ACCUMULATION CONTEMPLATION:

Nassourdine Imavov (-155)

Miranda Maverick (-300)

David Dvorak (-275)

Total Odds: +199

The three-leg parlay offered for UFC 289 presents a little more risk than previous offerings, but to balance it, it also provides a better reward. Right around +200 is where the accumulator will clock in at, and there are no special props or lines that all available books will not possess. Instead, it is the moneyline of three favorites who all have reasonable if not excellent paths to victory against their opponents. Interestingly, all three are on the preliminary portion of the card, which will provide some bettors an additional reason to watch the early bouts. In what might be the most likely to bust this play, France’s Imavov over Chris Curtis will close out this three-piece in the preliminary headliner. Thus far, the MMA Factory product has shown a measure of patience and striking savvy that can defuse the most aggressive heavy hitters that swing at him. Curtis is not quite in that category, but he tends to struggle against those who can outwork him from a distance. Imavov is just the type of opponent who, even though their reaches are identical, can make his jab feel like he has an extra fist extending from his own.

The middle option comes for one of the largest betting favorites on the card, save for the main event, and Maverick has just the tools to shut down what Jasmine Jasudavicius brings to the table. Notably strong for a flyweight, her only real blemish in the promotion came to Erin Blanchfield, who tossed her around at will back in 2021—her loss to Maycee Barber notwithstanding as the viewing public overwhelmingly considered Maverick to have won that. If the grappling of the two women cancels out, Maverick’s higher work rate and southpaw approach should be enough to outduel the Canadian and spoil her homecoming. Finally, top-ranked Dvorak takes on a late replacement in Australia’s Steve Erceg, with the latter growing up courtesy of a rather kind matchmaking hand within the Eternal MMA ranks. Erceg might be able to hit a mounted guillotine choke against a currently 8-7 regional fighter, but “Astro Boy” will be in for some rough sledding against the tough Dvorak. In his last two bouts, Dvorak has been knocked down, but the Erceg does not appear to possess near the power of a Manel Kape. While Dvorak is not offensively overwhelming, he tends to be quite defensively sound and maintains solid recoverability to survive what gets thrown his way and dish some back. Dvorak beating the late replacement will start this parlay off right, as a bet on him outright would not bear fruit like this kind of play will.