Strikeforce/M-1 'Fedor vs. Rogers' Analysis
Tim Leidecker Nov 10, 2009
The favorites prevailed, but light heavyweight champion Gegard
Mousasi, newly minted middleweight titleholder Jake Shields
and pound-for-pound luminary Fedor
Emelianenko had to work much harder than they were accustomed.
Mousasi went into the second round for only the second time in
three years, and Shields was forced to go 25 minutes for the first
time in his career. Meanwhile, Emelianenko knocked out Brett
Rogers but had to pay a high price with several injuries.
Analysis follows for the four main card bouts, plus the women’s lightweight title eliminator between Marloes Coenen and Roxanne Modaferri.
Marloes
Coenen def. Roxanne
Modafferi -- Submission (Armbar) 1:05 R1
What happened: Dutch grappling queen Coenen, a nine-year veteran of the fight game and one of the most physically intimidating females in mixed martial arts, was originally scheduled to take on lightweight champion Cristiane “Cyborg” Santos. Cyborg, however, pulled out of the fight, as did her replacement, Erin Toughill, which left the smaller Modafferi to accept the bout on 10 days notice. In the cage, Coenen, a Martijn de Jong protégé, dominated the stand-up before securing the fight-ending armbar just 65 seconds into the first round.
Forecast for Modaferri: Strikeforce has some amends to make with Modafferi and Hitomi Akano, a 135-pound fighter who was victimized by an overweight Santos. The logical decision would be to pit Modafferi and Akano against each other inside their actual weight class on the undercard of the next women’s championship match.
Fabricio Werdum def. Antonio Silva -- Unanimous Decision
What happened: Werdum, a two-time Abu Dhabi Combat Club Submission Wrestling World Championships winner, moved one step closer to challenging Fedor Emelianenko by outlasting and outworking Silva. “Bigfoot” got off to a strong start, as he knocked down and grounded-and-pounded his compatriot, but Werdum survived and gradually gained a foothold in the match. In the second and third rounds, Werdum controlled the clinch and lured “Pezao” into a fight on the ground. All three judges scored it 29-28 for the 32-year-old Werdum.
Forecast for Werdum: Werdum wants a shot at dethroning Emelianenko, but he may have to get in line, as Strikeforce heavyweight champion Alistair Overeem presents a more attractive matchup for the Russian. As a consequence, Werdum may be stuck in an uncomfortable position, just as he was with the UFC last fall when he had to fight one more contender to keep the dream of a title shot alive. Junior dos Santos ousted him then, and Brett Rogers may stand in his way this time. Strikeforce could also bring in fighters like Gilbert Yvel or Jeff Monson.
Forecast for Silva: With the Strikeforce heavyweight division consisting of just a handful of fighters, Pezao may be headed back to Japan, where rumors of another heavyweight grand prix persist. Sengoku could offer a host of interesting and fresh matchups to the Brazilian giant, including Blagoi Ivanov, Dave Herman and Josh Barnett.
Mousasi's stock continues to
rise.
Gegard
Mousasi def. Rameau
Thierry Sokoudjou -- TKO (Punches) 3:42 R2
What happened: Mousasi, who had beaten a path to superstardom in his last dozen fights, showed a lot of holes in his game against an attuned and focused Sokoudjou. The Armenian, who fights out of Leiden in Holland, even appeared to lose the first round after the Cameroonian judoka controlled the takedowns with his base. In the second round, Mousasi muscled Sokoudjou against the cage and worked his legs with knee strikes before unleashing a flurry of punches and eventually finishing him with ground-and-pound.
Forecast for Mousasi: After destroying Mark Hunt and Renato “Babalu” Sobral, many felt the young Armenian was positioning himself to threaten UFC middleweight champion Anderson Silva. After the fight with Sokoudjou, Mousasi now knows he has some work to do before he can oppose the world’s best. While his stand-up and groundwork are already top notch, his wrestling and throws need some fine tuning. Inside Strikeforce, Mike Whitehead or Jake Shields (at 185 pounds) might stand the best chance against him. In Japan, it only makes sense for him to continue fighting under K-1 rules.
Forecast for Sokoudjou: The 25-year-old judoka has become an example of how subpar career planning can derail one’s momentum. The Team Quest light heavyweight could have been a natural heir to Bob Sapp in Japan had he chosen to take Fighting and Entertainment Group’s offer in late 2007. Instead, he joined the UFC. Now 3-4 in his last seven bouts, Sokoudjou still has world-class potential but must evolve in order to remain relevant. He will face Ikuhisa Minowa in the Dream Super Hulk tournament final at K-1 “Dynamite!! Power of Courage 2009” on New Year’s Eve and should stay in Japan to rebuild his career in 2010.
Jake Shields def. Jason Miller -- Unanimous Decision
What happened: Watching this fight was a painful experience, and it reminded experts and fans alike why Joe Silva has been reluctant to sign Shields, a Cesar Gracie black belt, to fight in the UFC. While his positioning and top control are probably second to none in the 170- and 185-pound divisions, the 30-year-old Californian was too content with controlling Miller instead of finishing him. Despite losing, “Mayhem” provided the highlights in this 25-minute grapple-fest, including a second-round German suplex and a rear-naked choke that nearly ended the fight in the third.
Forecast for Shields: Due to recent signings of Andre Galvao, Marius Zaromskis, Matt Lindland and Ronaldo "Jacare" Souza, Shields should have no shortage of playfellows in 2010. However, a showdown with former International Fight League welterweight champion Jay Hieron should have the highest priority, both for Shields and Strikeforce. A fighter with a similar wrestling background, plenty of experience and stout hands, Hieron would be a genuine threat to Shields’ 13-fight winning streak.
Forecast for Miller: There will always be work for somebody as entertaining and technically advanced as Miller. A journeyman in a positive sense, “Mayhem” has fought for six different organizations in the past three years. That trend seems unlikely to change, with the soon-to-be 29-year-old slap boxer certain to make his rounds on the Hawaii circuit. After two unsatisfactory bouts against Jacare in Dream, many see his work in Japan as far from finished. How cool would it be to see Mayhem go at it with Kazushi Sakuraba before the Japanese icon finally decides to hang up his gloves?
Fedor Emelianenko def. Brett Rogers -- TKO (Punches) 1:48 R2
What happened: Watching Emelianenko fight will always be viewed as a special experience, since most speculation surrounding his bouts centers on how, not if, he will defeat his opponent. Despite having his nose broken with the first punch thrown in the bout, he came close to finishing Rogers with several submission attempts in the first round. In the second stanza, they clinched on the cage wall, and Emelianenko unloaded a massive combination, which was blocked. The pressure seemed to bother Rogers, however, as he became reluctant to punch. Emelianenko ended the fight with a devastating overhand right and some ground-and-pound.
Forecast for Emelianenko: As much as his Japanese fans would like to see it, a broken nose and an injured left hand will keep “The Last Emperor” out of any physical activity on New Year’s Eve. Emelianenko vs. Josh Barnett may not happen until Dec. 31, 2010, if ever. Inside Strikeforce, Alistair Overeem appears to be in the best position to challenge the 33-year-old heavyweight king. A loose date in April has been thrown around, but the possibility of that fight taking place again rests on how quickly the Russian will recover.
Forecast for Rogers: “The Grim” finds himself in a tough spot. Because of his punching power, he was vaulted into a position in which he was viewed as a fighter with a legitimate shot to upset Emelianenko. He has now suffered his first career defeat -- a loss he may never be afforded an opportunity to avenge. Former EliteXC heavyweight champion Antonio Silva may be the best matchup Strikeforce can offer him. Against the Brazilian, he could bounce back and re-establish himself as a contender for the heavyweight crown.
Analysis follows for the four main card bouts, plus the women’s lightweight title eliminator between Marloes Coenen and Roxanne Modaferri.
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What happened: Dutch grappling queen Coenen, a nine-year veteran of the fight game and one of the most physically intimidating females in mixed martial arts, was originally scheduled to take on lightweight champion Cristiane “Cyborg” Santos. Cyborg, however, pulled out of the fight, as did her replacement, Erin Toughill, which left the smaller Modafferi to accept the bout on 10 days notice. In the cage, Coenen, a Martijn de Jong protégé, dominated the stand-up before securing the fight-ending armbar just 65 seconds into the first round.
Forecast for Coenen: If Strikeforce
boss Scott Coker remains true to his word and Cyborg heals in time,
Coenen will meet the champion early next year.
Forecast for Modaferri: Strikeforce has some amends to make with Modafferi and Hitomi Akano, a 135-pound fighter who was victimized by an overweight Santos. The logical decision would be to pit Modafferi and Akano against each other inside their actual weight class on the undercard of the next women’s championship match.
Fabricio Werdum def. Antonio Silva -- Unanimous Decision
What happened: Werdum, a two-time Abu Dhabi Combat Club Submission Wrestling World Championships winner, moved one step closer to challenging Fedor Emelianenko by outlasting and outworking Silva. “Bigfoot” got off to a strong start, as he knocked down and grounded-and-pounded his compatriot, but Werdum survived and gradually gained a foothold in the match. In the second and third rounds, Werdum controlled the clinch and lured “Pezao” into a fight on the ground. All three judges scored it 29-28 for the 32-year-old Werdum.
Forecast for Werdum: Werdum wants a shot at dethroning Emelianenko, but he may have to get in line, as Strikeforce heavyweight champion Alistair Overeem presents a more attractive matchup for the Russian. As a consequence, Werdum may be stuck in an uncomfortable position, just as he was with the UFC last fall when he had to fight one more contender to keep the dream of a title shot alive. Junior dos Santos ousted him then, and Brett Rogers may stand in his way this time. Strikeforce could also bring in fighters like Gilbert Yvel or Jeff Monson.
Forecast for Silva: With the Strikeforce heavyweight division consisting of just a handful of fighters, Pezao may be headed back to Japan, where rumors of another heavyweight grand prix persist. Sengoku could offer a host of interesting and fresh matchups to the Brazilian giant, including Blagoi Ivanov, Dave Herman and Josh Barnett.
Dave
Mandel/Sherdog.com
What happened: Mousasi, who had beaten a path to superstardom in his last dozen fights, showed a lot of holes in his game against an attuned and focused Sokoudjou. The Armenian, who fights out of Leiden in Holland, even appeared to lose the first round after the Cameroonian judoka controlled the takedowns with his base. In the second round, Mousasi muscled Sokoudjou against the cage and worked his legs with knee strikes before unleashing a flurry of punches and eventually finishing him with ground-and-pound.
Forecast for Mousasi: After destroying Mark Hunt and Renato “Babalu” Sobral, many felt the young Armenian was positioning himself to threaten UFC middleweight champion Anderson Silva. After the fight with Sokoudjou, Mousasi now knows he has some work to do before he can oppose the world’s best. While his stand-up and groundwork are already top notch, his wrestling and throws need some fine tuning. Inside Strikeforce, Mike Whitehead or Jake Shields (at 185 pounds) might stand the best chance against him. In Japan, it only makes sense for him to continue fighting under K-1 rules.
Forecast for Sokoudjou: The 25-year-old judoka has become an example of how subpar career planning can derail one’s momentum. The Team Quest light heavyweight could have been a natural heir to Bob Sapp in Japan had he chosen to take Fighting and Entertainment Group’s offer in late 2007. Instead, he joined the UFC. Now 3-4 in his last seven bouts, Sokoudjou still has world-class potential but must evolve in order to remain relevant. He will face Ikuhisa Minowa in the Dream Super Hulk tournament final at K-1 “Dynamite!! Power of Courage 2009” on New Year’s Eve and should stay in Japan to rebuild his career in 2010.
Jake Shields def. Jason Miller -- Unanimous Decision
What happened: Watching this fight was a painful experience, and it reminded experts and fans alike why Joe Silva has been reluctant to sign Shields, a Cesar Gracie black belt, to fight in the UFC. While his positioning and top control are probably second to none in the 170- and 185-pound divisions, the 30-year-old Californian was too content with controlling Miller instead of finishing him. Despite losing, “Mayhem” provided the highlights in this 25-minute grapple-fest, including a second-round German suplex and a rear-naked choke that nearly ended the fight in the third.
Forecast for Shields: Due to recent signings of Andre Galvao, Marius Zaromskis, Matt Lindland and Ronaldo "Jacare" Souza, Shields should have no shortage of playfellows in 2010. However, a showdown with former International Fight League welterweight champion Jay Hieron should have the highest priority, both for Shields and Strikeforce. A fighter with a similar wrestling background, plenty of experience and stout hands, Hieron would be a genuine threat to Shields’ 13-fight winning streak.
Forecast for Miller: There will always be work for somebody as entertaining and technically advanced as Miller. A journeyman in a positive sense, “Mayhem” has fought for six different organizations in the past three years. That trend seems unlikely to change, with the soon-to-be 29-year-old slap boxer certain to make his rounds on the Hawaii circuit. After two unsatisfactory bouts against Jacare in Dream, many see his work in Japan as far from finished. How cool would it be to see Mayhem go at it with Kazushi Sakuraba before the Japanese icon finally decides to hang up his gloves?
Fedor Emelianenko def. Brett Rogers -- TKO (Punches) 1:48 R2
What happened: Watching Emelianenko fight will always be viewed as a special experience, since most speculation surrounding his bouts centers on how, not if, he will defeat his opponent. Despite having his nose broken with the first punch thrown in the bout, he came close to finishing Rogers with several submission attempts in the first round. In the second stanza, they clinched on the cage wall, and Emelianenko unloaded a massive combination, which was blocked. The pressure seemed to bother Rogers, however, as he became reluctant to punch. Emelianenko ended the fight with a devastating overhand right and some ground-and-pound.
Forecast for Emelianenko: As much as his Japanese fans would like to see it, a broken nose and an injured left hand will keep “The Last Emperor” out of any physical activity on New Year’s Eve. Emelianenko vs. Josh Barnett may not happen until Dec. 31, 2010, if ever. Inside Strikeforce, Alistair Overeem appears to be in the best position to challenge the 33-year-old heavyweight king. A loose date in April has been thrown around, but the possibility of that fight taking place again rests on how quickly the Russian will recover.
Forecast for Rogers: “The Grim” finds himself in a tough spot. Because of his punching power, he was vaulted into a position in which he was viewed as a fighter with a legitimate shot to upset Emelianenko. He has now suffered his first career defeat -- a loss he may never be afforded an opportunity to avenge. Former EliteXC heavyweight champion Antonio Silva may be the best matchup Strikeforce can offer him. Against the Brazilian, he could bounce back and re-establish himself as a contender for the heavyweight crown.
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