UFC 103 Analysis: The Main Card

UFC 103 should have come with the tag “The Graduate,” as it turned into a prime test for many of the promotion’s young stars, including Tyson Griffin, Paul Daley and Junior dos Santos.

All three passed with flying colors at the American Airlines Center in Dallas on Saturday, winning by technical knockout. In the main event, former UFC light heavyweight champion Vitor Belfort continued his tear with a first-round stoppage of former middleweight king Rich Franklin and set up a possible date with reigning 185-pound titleholder Anderson Silva.

What questions were answered? Analysis follows.

Tyson Griffin def. Hermes Franca -- TKO (Punches) 3:26 R2

What happened: Griffin’s leg kicks were the X-factor in a bout that got off to a slow start, as both fighters had visible respect for each other’s punching power. After appearing to lose the first round, Franca shifted gears and pushed the pace. Eventually, Griffin came through with a stiff right that dropped the Brazilian. He then pounced on his floored foe, forcing a stoppage midway through the second round. It was Griffin’s first knockout since he stopped Duane Ludwig at a Strikeforce show in June 2006.

Forecast for Griffin: With the win, the 25-year-old Californian joins fellow wrestlers Frankie Edgar (provided he gets past Kurt Pellegrino in December) and Gray Maynard as the top suitors for the winner of the lightweight title fight between B.J. Penn and Diego Sanchez. Maynard against Griffin would serve as a certain title eliminator, if it were not for the fact that they are teammates and training partners at Xtreme Couture.

Forecast for Franca: Suffering his first ever stoppage loss inside the UFC was a huge setback for the likeable Brazilian. Perhaps out of the title picture for good following the defeat, Franca will be relegated to a gatekeeper role in the lightweight division. Bouts with Jim Miller, Efrain Escudero or a rematch with Nate Diaz could be next.

Josh Koscheck def. Frank Trigg -- TKO (Punches) 1:25 R1

What happened: Koscheck did everything right and overran the 12-year veteran Trigg. Matched against a superior wrestler, Trigg was forced to trade leather with an adversary five years his junior. Koscheck moved too well for him and reminded everyone of the improved stand-up he showed against Yoshiyuki Yoshida last winter.

Forecast for Koscheck: The American Kickboxing Academy welterweight has openly asked the UFC brass to put him in the cage with former champion and future hall of famer Matt Hughes. If matchmaker Joe Silva does not greenlight the fight, Marcus Davis could emerge as a future opponent. A rematch with Paulo Thiago also seems likely at some point.

Forecast for Trigg: The charismatic Californian finds himself between a rock and a hard place following the loss. Trigg certainly did not plan on dropping his first bout after a four-year absence from the UFC. Attractive future fights for him could include a second meeting with Carlos Condit or a clash with fellow wrestler and up-and-coming prospect Johny Hendricks, provided they waive their loyalties as Xtreme Couture teammates.

Paul Daley def. Martin Kampmann -- TKO (Punches) 2:31 R1

What happened: In a battle of the European elites at 170 pounds, Britain’s Daley got the best of Denmark’s Kampmann. “Semtex” was the heavier puncher from the opening bell, peppering his Scandinavian opponent with some solid strikes. Kampmann briefly changed tactics and wrestled Daley against the cage but then made the crucial mistake and released the EliteXC veteran. In return, Daley knocked him silly standing.

Forecast for Daley: With the win over one of the promotion’s top welterweights, Daley has put himself on the fast track for big-name matchups. Mike Swick, Kampmann’s original opponent, was instantly mentioned as counterpart for a possible title eliminator. Down the road, bouts against fellow super strikers Thiago Alves and Carlos Condit could make the mouths of cage kickboxing fans water.

Forecast for Kampmann: The extremely likeable and versatile Dane was the ultimate loser in the change of opponents. Not only did he not get to fight in a title eliminator, but he also ended up competing against a guy with even harder hands than Swick. As a result, he got knocked down a rung on his road to a title shot and will have to make another attempt against opponents like Marcus Davis, Josh Koscheck or Karo Parisyan.

Junior dos Santos def. Mirko “Cro Cop” Filipovic -- Submission (Punch) 2:00 R3

What happened: In a true changing of the guard, Filipovic, the 2006 Pride Fighting Championships open weight grand prix winner, was outclassed and outworked over 12 minutes before he verbally submitted midway through the third round. The Croatian looked tentative and ill-prepared to take on a fighter of the Brazilian’s caliber. While he has been criticized in the past for relying too heavily on his counterattacking style, Filipovic overplayed his hand against Dos Santos by exclusively looking for his left head kick.

Forecast for Dos Santos: Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira’s training partner appears to be the real deal. A mobile, precise boxer with five years of experience in Brazilian jiu-jitsu, “Cigano” poses a difficult matchup for anybody in the UFC heavyweight division. Shooting star Todd Duffee, compatriot Gabriel Gonzaga or the winner of the Cain Velasquez-Ben Rothwell showdown at UFC 103 could be in the 25-year-old’s future.

Forecast for Filipovic: This decisive loss to the strong and skilled but largely unknown Brazilian ends his run at the UFC’s heavyweight crown for good. At age 35 and carrying a mediocre .500 record in his past six decisions, the Croatian appears destined for bouts with other past-their-prime legends. The thought of seeing the former Pride superstar go toe-to-toe with Randy Couture, Chuck Liddell or Tito Ortiz remains attractive, though he could retire instead.

Vitor Belfort def. Rich Franklin -- TKO (Punches) 3:02 R1

What happened: Belfort was more focused, composed, sharp and lethal than ever. While he was competitive in recent fights against Dan Henderson and Wanderlei Silva, Franklin was blown out of the water by the Brazilian and completely overwhelmed by his deadly precision. Franklin did not land anything significant due to Belfort’s excellent footwork and head movement and eventually got sniped with a series of jabs and left hands.

Forecast for Belfort: While UFC President Dana White seems set on granting Belfort a title shot right away -- he has posted five consecutive wins, including two big ones over Franklin and Matt Lindland and -- surgery on defending champion Anderson Silva could throw a monkey wrench into those plans. How cool would it be to have a rematch between Belfort and Wanderlei Silva, possibly headlining the promotion’s return to Brazil more than 11 years after its last show there?

Forecast for Franklin: The former middleweight titleholder’s position was stable as long as he was winning his light heavyweight and catchweight super fights. Now frustration seems likely to set in, with Franklin realizing he may not be a factor at the top of either the middleweight or light heavyweight division following three losses in six fights. Possible opponents for him include Stephan Bonnar, Rashad Evans -- as a stand-in for Quinton “Rampage” Jackson -- or someone like Ryan Bader in a changing-of-the-guard kind of match.