UFC 191 Statistical Matchup Analysis: Johnson vs. Dodson 2
There are few stones that Demetrious Johnson has left unturned in the Ultimate Fighting Championship flyweight division.
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On the other side of the cage at UFC 191 on Saturday in Las Vegas will be the magnetic personality of John Dodson, who bounced back from knee surgery with a thorough decision victory over former Bellator MMA champion Zach Makovsky in May. “The Magician” has only been bested once in the UFC -- by Johnson -- and since that loss has won three straight. While Dodson left that first bout the worse for wear, he can take solace in the fact that he has provided the incumbent champion with the most competitive title fight yet. He remains the only flyweight to score a knockdown on him, as well.
All of this sets up what is by far the most anticipated title fight
the division can put together at the moment. Here is the Tale that
the Tape tells us:
Part of what makes this matchup so intriguing is how similar Johnson and Dodson are standing next to each other. At the same weight, height and reach, they are anthropometric mirror images, and with only a year of separation between them, it seems that “Mighty Mouse” and “The Magician” were fated to be rivals. Coming off of almost identical layoffs, the only intangible X factor at play is Dodson’s knee, which did not seem to be problematic in his comeback fight against Makovsky. They are truly evenly matched.
The only contrast that really stands out here is Johnson’s experience advantage. Despite starting his professional career three years after Dodson, Johnson has been in twice as many Zuffa fights for more than three times the amount of major league minutes. Granted, part of that disparity between fights and minutes is a result of Johnson having more championship bouts and Dodson having more finishes. No matter how you look at it, though, the Tale of the Tape gives only a brief snapshot of this rematch, albeit one that favors the incumbent champion ever so slightly.
Let us take a more detailed look at the striking matchup:
Fewer similarities persist in the striking numbers. Although they both stay about as busy in terms of volume, there is a significant departure when it comes to accuracy. Johnson not only throws and lands more strikes per round, but he is also much more accurate. Dodson is a bit more predictable with his striking, too: 89 percent of his strikes come at distance, with only eight percent in the clinch and three percent on the ground. Similarly, 79 percent of his strikes are aimed at his opponent’s head, with only 15 percent to the body and six percent to the legs.
Johnson, however, is much more balanced. Distance strikes account for 68 percent of his total output, with 26 percent coming in the clinch and six percent on the ground. As a result, he aims upstairs 60 percent of the time, goes to the body 22 percent of the time and targets the legs the remaining 18 percent of the time. The key here is his vicious inside-game, predicated by a relentless work rate that blends strikes and takedowns into a Tazmanian Devil-esque flurry. The clinch is where “Mighty Mouse” has chewed up most adversaries, and it remains his most dominant path to victory.
Although Dodson is much more hittable, eating a strike and a half more per minute than Johnson, striking represents his best chance to win. More so than anyone else in the division, Dodson has tremendous power. His ability to put people to sleep is unmatched in the flyweight class, and that type of power can be fight-altering, even if he does not land flush; opponents have to game plan around his power shots in order to avoid the potential blow.
If the rematch resembles their first fight, most of it will occur on the feet. Should the fight enter prolonged stretches of grappling, here is how it will look:
Once the fight turns into a grappling match, it slides increasingly into Johnson’s favor. The champ is much more aggressive in looking for takedowns, and he is much more successful at completing them. Once on the ground, he actively looks to advance position and lock in a submission -- even when he could just as easily coast to victory, as his wins against Horiguchi and John Moraga prove. Johnson is one of the best in the business at peppering opponents with strikes while passing guard and setting up submissions, and on top of everything else, he has evaded all six submission attempts thrown at him under the Zuffa banner.
Dodson, on the other hand, uses his wrestling pedigree primarily as a defensive tool to keep the fight upright; he has only attempted 15 takedowns in the UFC. However, few people are better defensive wrestlers than Dodson, in any division. In his seven UFC fights, 6 people have attempted takedowns, and four of those six have attempted five or more. Only one of them has been able to complete even a single takedown. The problem for Dodson is that he is in a rematch with that one person now, and while he stuffed two thirds of Johnson’s attempts, he was still forced to backpedal more than enough times to break his offensive rhythm. Still, he is fluid on the ground and adept at springing back to his feet. Nobody in the UFC has been able to attempt a submission on Dodson, so while he is excellent at preventing submissions, his actual ability to defend them remains unknown.
THE FINAL WORD
Betting odds have Johnson as the favorite anywhere between -470 and -575, with Dodson in the range of a +350 to +425 underdog. This seems about right. While the first fight was competitive for the first and only UFC flyweight champion, it was not exactly close. What makes Johnson so unique is that he is not simply a paragon of one skill in particular; he is excellent in blending takedowns with strikes and passes with submission attempts. Perhaps more so than anyone else in MMA, Johnson’s many skills complement and enhance each other. He is the quintessential mixed martial artist. Dodson is a live underdog, though. He may be the only man in the division who can keep pace with Johnson's physical gifts, and his knockout power is an ever-present threat. Can Dodson find Johnson’s chin and seal the deal or will the rematch be another voice in the echo chamber of what “Mighty Mouse” should do next?
Data for the analysis was provided by FightMetric. Eric Stinton performed all analysis. Stinton and Sherdog.com assume no responsibility for bets placed on fights, financial or otherwise.
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