‘UFC Jacksonville’ Aftermath: Can Ilia Topuria Compete with The Elite at 145?

Ilia Topuria (14-0, 4 KOs, 8 subs) had a career night as the headliner of “UFC Jacksonville.” After a five-round beating of Josh Emmett, including a rare 10-7 round, Topuria-mania has finally arrived. Likely a top five fighter come the new rankings, Topuria will now be among the elite in the UFC’s flyweight division.

Today we will look at that performance and see what made Topuria so effective against Josh Emmett despite the power coming back his way. We’ve discussed Topuria in depth in the past with this past week’s Beforemath, and again after his performance at UFC 282 against Bryce Mitchell. Those are worth the read because a lot of what we are discussing today will build off of that. Today is Aftermath and in the words of the great Bruce Buffer, “It’s time!”

The Next Featherweight Contender

There’s really not much bad to say about Topuria’s performance at “UFC Jacksonville.” In front of national television audiences on ABC, Topuria put on a clinic and showed the world on his biggest stage yet that he’s the man. Emmett didn’t implement much of anything from our Beforemath article. The feints and such were what we talked about to be something Emmett should look to do. In the same breath, Emmett isn’t that type of fighter, and we acknowledged that asking for all of this is asking for Emmett to be a different fighter altogether, something that’s not particularly fair.

One other thing we identified in Emmett’s section was the fact that Topuria will put himself out of position from punching so hard. Against Bryce Mitchell, he threw so hard that he threw himself to the ground. In last weekend’s fight, there was much less of that. Topuria often overextended on his hooks and left himself exposed at times, but he got down behind the lead shoulder and managed to deflect the major blows coming back his way. Against the elite at 145, Max Holloway, Alexander Volkanovski and Yair Rodriguez, all of whom punish fighters for overextending, that won’t cut it. Even getting behind your rear shoulder might not be enough as all three will see the dip and try to time out the kick on the dip.

Topuria was very good all night but was by no means perfect. That said, he improved from the Mitchell fight and that is promising, considering he is only 26. There is still some improvement left in Topuria and defensively is where he will reap the most benefits.

All truly great offensive work starts off with the jab. That’s the case in boxing, at least. We have wrestlers in MMA and a jab isn’t as important. But for all intents and purposes, all great Topuria offensive work will, in fact, start off with the jab. Topuria stayed behind the jab all night and it was how he staved off Emmett’s forward progress and punished him each time he tried to step in. A good jab will keep an overzealous opponent off especially when paired with Topuria staying behind his shoulder.

Some of the improvement we saw from Topuria on the night was on the defensive side of things. We’ve touched on the shoulder a lot in this article already and how it helped Topuria. A student of the striking arts, Topuria essentially implemented the bare bones of what is a Floyd Mayweather shoulder roll.

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What makes the shoulder roll so effective in MMA is the lowered lead hand. Getting behind the shoulder with oncoming rights in a closed matchup (orthodox versus orthodox in this case) hides Topuria’s chin. Whereas Topuria’s right hand stays by his chin on the right side, protecting his chin and keeping the cross loaded up for a counter, the left hand stays low and that normally protects his body. What this does in MMA additionally is keeping his hand lower for a takedown counter. When a takedown is shot, the hand is closer to the legs and can either pull up the opponent, push off the back of the head for a limp leg, or punch through and pull the opponent into a clinch situation.

The key to the shoulder roll, also known as the Philly Shell, is to being as impregnable as possible. Staying behind the lead shoulder is just the start of it and against a fighter with as few tools as Emmett, works just fine. But against more varied strikers, Topuria is working on the rest. In our first figure above, we see Emmett (1) throwing a left to the body. Topuria has his lead hand low and manages to block the blow. Knowing that a right hand is coming, Topuria also has his chin tucked and his right hand up and protecting the other side of his face. As Emmett throws the right (2) we can see Topuria roll with the punch and manage to have it deflected off his shoulder.

This isn’t textbook, picture-perfect shoulder rolling by any stretch, but to see Ilia Topuria utilize this technique is promising. He knows where he needs to improve and is working on a plan to do so. If Topuria improves this and his footwork, he will be a force to be reckoned with.

This fight was somewhat uncharacteristic for Topuria in so much as the bodywork was a bit lacking. Early on, he had the power his way coming back and lowering his hands for body work could have ended in disaster. As the fight went on, Topuria had Emmett’s number and going to the body could have helped him actually get out of the fight before the final bell rung.

Footwork is another great area from Topuria. The improved footwork, something he was already good at, played into him not getting out of position when throwing his big strikes. In addition to that, Topuria also kept Emmett against the cage for a lot of the fight by cutting off the cage. In boxing, there’s the corner that you can back your opponent into. Not so much in MMA. Footwork is vital for a fighter who wants to have an opponent in front of them with nowhere to go backwards.

Our next figure shows Topuria keeping Emmett to the cage and being very comfortable in the pocket. (1) Both fighters are in the pocket and Topuria lands a right hand that will stumble Emmett back. Instead of exiting the pocket, as Topuria typically does, (2) he leans back and Emmett throws a massive left hand way over the head of Topuria. Notice his feet though. They’re still in his power base and Topuria has the right of Emmett cut off, his back is to the fence, and going left would send him into the power hand of Topuria. There’s really nowhere for him to go. Predictably, (3) Emmett throws a right hand and you’ll notice that Topuria has pivoted around the punch. Emmett goes (4) escape laterally and Topuria shifts to his right and lines up another right hand.

Topuria did this all night and it really bothered Emmett. Keeping Emmett on the back foot helped Topuria pile on the points. As the fight went on, it only got worse. In fact, after the sequence above, when Emmett managed to shift to his right and out of Topuria’s trap, Topuria backed him to the fence immediately and an almost identical exchange happened again. The footwork of Topuria in this was by far his best work yet.

In UFC on ESPN 47 Beforemath we talked about how Teofimo Lopez, the WBO Super Lightweight World Champion, is so effective against southpaws. In that article we saw a section where Lopez would literally shove off an advancing Josh Taylor as he looked to get in the pocket. Topuria utilized that exact same technique against Emmett as well despite this being a southpaw versus orthodox matchup.

(1) Josh Emmett wanted to land early and start to punish Topuria. He would step in huge with a jab and (2) Topuria would dip to his right. Face to face with a knee, admittedly not the best look, Topuria knows that Emmett is close, really close. He will do his best Lopez impression and (3) extend the forearm to push Emmett out of the pocket.

While Emmett was already backing out the pocket, seeing this from Topuria adds another level to the “Oh, he’s improving,” line of thought. He’s not just adding offensive weapons to his toolkit. He’s looking to become more defensively sound. And that is what you want to see in a fighter: someone who looks at where they’re slacking and improves in that area. Eventually they’ll be so good at so many different things they will become a champion. Just ask Alexander Volkanovski.

All in all, the future is bright for the undefeated Topuria. He isn’t ready for a title shot just yet. One more fight for a number one contender slot is in order. I want to see someone who will feint and throw trickery at Topuria. Holloway is booked against Chan Sung Jung but if Topuria wants to wait until December, I’m fine with that fight. Arnold Allen is another tough fight that could be in the cards, although that may not make him the number one contender. If Topuria is all about improving, let’s see just how good this guy truly is. I have a feeling he might be one of the best.