Prime Picks: UFC 305 ‘Du Plessis vs. Adesanya’

The Ultimate Fighting Championship parks in Perth, Australia, with a local-friendly showcase this Saturday at RAC Arena. Regional flavor takes up 10 of the dozen pairings littering the lineup, while Chinese welterweights reside in the rest. Despite the desire for Aussies and Kiwis to get their hands raised at night’s end, the betting lines indicate that fans in the building might go home disappointed. Join the UFC 305 edition of Prime Picks as we pinpoint a stylistic vulnerability, call forth the might of a barroom brawler and throw names against the wall to hope they stick.

STRAIGHT-UP CASH

Israel Adesanya (-120)

Who would have thought that a talented, experienced kickboxer would be frazzled by a stiff jab, heavy pressure and a gas tank that wouldn’t quit? That is all it took for Sean Strickland to defuse the dangerous Adesanya, with some oversimplification for good measure. Still, the recently turned 35-year-old never could get out of second gear, showing for the second time in three fights that someone fearlessly walking him down might be his undoing. Even if Adesanya exacted revenge against rival Alex Pereira in 2023, he remains 1-3 in two sports against the former two-division champ. How will Adesanya stack up against a berserker who does nothing but fly straight at him? If anyone issues a guarantee on this main event, they are fooling themselves. With that said, a line on “The Last Stylebender” at just over even money is outstanding.

UFC 305: Du Plessis vs. Adesanya Saturday at 10 ET on ESPN+. Order Now!

Adesanya and middleweight king Dricus Du Plessis come into this pairing with drastically different momentum behind them. Adesanya is getting a title shot thanks to a previous beef with the current titleholder regarding their definition of “African.” It is not a recent performance that propelled him into this but rather his name value and the need for a local to fill seats atop a pay-per-view marquee in Australia—options for $80 headliners are notoriously limited of late. On the other hand, Du Plessis has blasted past expectations, cruising as a betting favorite or the upside on a pick-’em in every matchup until encountering Robert Whittaker. The South African passed that test with flying colors and outfoxed Strickland in a close one, but MMA math of “Stillknocks” trumping Adesanya because Strickland beat the Kiwi is hardly set in stone.

This five-round affair remains among the worst stylistic matchups for Du Plessis in the division, and should he get past “The Last Stylebender,” good luck to the next contenders. Adesanya uses his length better than almost anyone active in the sport, with kicks that come at any moment and rifling hand combinations that can disrupt or otherwise put the screws to his opponents. Most effective may be his leg kicks, the type that shut down the likes of Paulo Costa and stifled many others. Du Plessis is still as vulnerable as ever to those strikes, and he might find his explosiveness limited if his lead wheel gets chewed up early. It will be up to Du Plessis to crowd Adesanya, whether by threatening with his underrated wrestling or remaining close to smack the ex-kickboxer with elbows and deflating body shots. If Adesanya can fight at his preferred range and pace, he can run laps around the champion and possibly even force a late stoppage. As long as the former titleholder has not fallen off the timing and speed cliff that so many fighters encounter at his age, he can pick Du Plessis apart.

STRAIGHT-UP PASS

Steve Erceg (-165)

Even in a defeat to Alexandre Pantoja, Erceg proved he could at least hang in the top echelon of the division. A year or two and some extra miles under his belt, and Erceg might be able to topple “The Cannibal.” To bounce back after his first UFC championship loss, he welcomes slugging flyweight Kai Kara-France back to the company after the latter’s 14-month absence. Kara-France is a tough out for anyone he has encountered since joining the big leagues, and even though he stalls out against the top-tier names, he is called “Don’t Blink” for a reason. At this point in the promotion, Erceg is somewhere between Alessandro Costa and the aforementioned Pantoja, a veritable chasm of unknown quantities.

Erceg showed in his last time out that he can go five hard rounds while displaying that he can get overwhelmed by blitzing attacks and relentless pressure. Pantoja’s ground game proved to be the difference-maker in their encounter, and Erceg will not have to face off against a wild and crazy grappling force when he battles the hard-swinging Kiwi. “Astro Boy” can capitalize on the big overhands of his opponent by fighting behind a jab, but one big shot, even at 125 pounds, could change the game. When looking at the only duel on the fight card between a pair of participants from Oceania, there are better options to check. For example, Tom Nolan landing the knockout in the first round against Alex Reyes is -130—a narrow prop that should hit as hard as Nolan.

’DOG WILL HUNT

Tai Tuivasa (+185)

When in a straight-up bar brawl, beloved Aussie Tuivasa should be much closer than the wrong end of a 2-to-1 favorite. “Bam Bam” battles former kickboxer Jairzinho Rozenstruik, who is more than willing to trade leather for as long as he is on his feet. With this being a three-round affair, Tuivasa will not likely need to fret about burning out his energy reserves as he surges forward like a marauder. Rozenstruik will engage him happily, as this will be his preferred and best path to victory. The floor will be lava for both fighters, and a takedown may only be considered when one of these two big men inevitably gets his bell rung. There may be other underdogs worth a sniff on the billing, but the one-shot ability of Tuivasa makes him a choice option.

The local competitor has lost four in a row, although he has stumbled against the elite of the elite at 265 pounds. If Marcin Tybura is considered the weak link in this skid, it is a solid list of opposition. Multiple deficiencies in Tuivasa’s game may never be shored up, but that makes fans appreciate him so much more. “Bam Bam” embodies his nickname like few others, throwing caution to the wind and hurling punches until someone falls over. Accurate strikers like Ciryl Gane and Alexander Volkov largely had their way with him, along with a power puncher like Sergei Pavlovich and a wrestler in Tybura. While Rozenstruik may be in the “heavy hitter” category, but he is not immune from getting clocked. For as long as Tuivasa is on his feet, he is in the fight and capable of shutting the Suriname native’s lights out.

AN ACCUMULATION CONTEMPLATION

Mateusz Gamrot (-330)

Carlos Prates (-370)

Stewart Nicoll (-230)

Total Odds: +137

There may be few threads connecting the three competitors selected for this UFC 305 parlay, but the main theme is that they are all expected to win comfortably. Risk is sometimes warranted, but smart choices may be merited rather than reckless ones. Lately, an all-underdog spread may not be the right option for UFC cards, with the last several shows seeing chalk winning the day in all but a few matchups. The relatively safe accumulator—one can never promise success when multiple victors all have to prevail, given the volatility of this sport—ends with Gamrot, who is on his way back up the ladder again. With wrestling his main goal, the Polish fighter maintains a decent defensive perimeter until he can lock his hands around his opponents and take them for a ride. Dan Hooker has shown that he is not quite done in the sport, but Gamrot has the ground game to take the taller man’s reach and volume on the feet out of the equation.

Jingliang Li loves playing spoiler. He did so against Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos and again when sparking Santiago Ponzinibbio. The crushing power of “The Leech” is often forgotten, but that can be expected for a fighter who has competed five times since 2020. This will be Li’s first outing since September 2022, while Brazil’s Prates is surging and brimming with exciting violence potential. Since joining with the Fighting Nerds team, Prates has shored up deficiencies and toppled better opposition, often without breaking a sweat. His Chinese opponent will arguably be the toughest test of his career, and Li’s chin is granite, but Prates has the age, horsepower and momentum to get over this dangerous hump.

With seven stoppages in his eight wins, including five in the first round, there are lingering questions about what happens when Nicoll runs into an adversary who does not crumble at the first sign of danger. The organization gave Nicoll this debut on a silver platter, pitting him against a Mexican grappler in Jesus Santos Aguilar, who may be one of the slower-paced flyweights on the roster. The recent speedy knockout on Aguilar’s ledger might be better attributed to Shannon Ross’ chin erosion than some newfound power, as Mateus Mendonca shrugged off what little was thrown at him. Aguilar would like nothing more than to land a few takedowns, control and smother while searching for a submission. The ultra-aggressive Nicoll, fired up by getting his UFC debut in front of a home crowd, will find Aguilar with his power before it is all said and done, allowing him to put the underdog out with strikes or courtesy of a club-and-sub.